Tuesday, November 6, 2012

Online Dating Market full version 2013 / 1 of 3

 Please see also
The Worldwide Online Dating Market 2013 / Spanish version with links in English
Online Dating Industry NOV 2012 State of the Art
Online Dating Sites can be classified as:
1.0: "Browsing/Searching Options, Powerful Searching Engines"
1.5: "Unidirectional Recommendation Engines"
2.0: "Matching based on Self-Reported Data / Bidirectional Recommendation Engines"
3.0: "Compatibility Matching Algorithms"

The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users.
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life.(FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

Online Dating Sites like eHarmony, Parship, Be2, MeeticAffinity, PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor and others had been calculating personality similarity between prospective users since several years ago with low successful rates, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%) because they use the normative Big5 or ipsative proprietary models instead -like Chemistry or PerfectMatch- to measure personality traits.

No one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of members.
No one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method.
No one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members.

Here a list of 55+ compatibility matching engines (the majority by personality) I had been testing since 2003.

WeAttract (2003)
PerfectMatch, Duet Total Compatibility System.
eHarmony /  / iHamoni (Japan).
MyType from RSVP (it was a copycat of eHarmony in Australia).
"MyType - Discover Your Personality Type"

Match Argentina.
"eChemistry - the science of attraction"
Match Affinity, Meetic Affinity, Dating Direct Affinity (Ulteem), PartnerDE.
Parship / eCift in Turkey.
The PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor.
The PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor.
eVow's compatibility matching method.
Zoosk Scientific Matching Service/System.
Brainiac Dating.
IQ Gorgeous.
FriendScout24 BQ check.
Digital Physiognomy
"FaceReader from Profiler1: Personality Traits analysis based on facial features."
Are We Good Together?
Opposites Connect.
"Yangutu, the science-based online dating site"
Energy Profiling.
 and many more. All of them are like placebo!
Their daters are victims of human experimentation.

Traffic of paid dating sites declined sharply since 2010 and continues (eHarmony, Chemistry, etc).
Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years.
The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created. There is no Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms, except for Shaadi. No online dating site is Scientifically Proven.
Worldwide there are less than 7 million paid members (adding up all the ones at eHarmony, Match, Chemistry, Meetic, MeeticAffinity, OkCupid, PeopleMedia's Communities, PlentyOfFish, Parship/eCift, etc). The market remains enormous for new players.
Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective, more efficient.

Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods are only fueled by big marketing budgets and not by serious scientific evidence. No one (eHarmony, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, MeeticAffinity, Be2, RewardingLove, Parship/eCift, True, etc) can prove its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer_reviewed Scientific Paper. They are all like placebo, because
* Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods, when calculating compatibility between prospective mates, have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own. [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
* That is because they use:
a) simplified versions of personality traits, instead of the 16PF5 or similar with the complete inventory (16 variables)
b) inadequate quantitative methods to calculate compatibility between prospective mates, like eHarmony which uses Dyadic Adjustment Scale or other sites which use multivariate linear / logistic regression equations o other equations.

I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

 Many South American online dating proposals claim "millions of members" in their databases but that is not true.
South America is an unserved / unexploited market.

...... to be continued in part 2.

The Simpsons, Apple, Facebook, LinkedIn, WordPress, Google, Hotmail, Yahoo, YouTube, Blogger, Wikipedia, Bing, Twitter, Skype are BIG successes in Argentina!!!
I have the theory that if something is successful in Argentina, it could be a success in the World.
If it can NOT be a success here in Argentina, it will definitely NOT be a success in the World.

NO online dating company (for serious daters) has success here in Argentina nor Brazil or other Latin American country.

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