Monday, November 4, 2013

Stupid investors series: today, Hinge

TechCrunch reported "Hinge Is For Relationships And It Just Raised USD4M"

Do you remember 1Mind, LikeIt / TheCompleteMe,  Comiingle, LikeBright, Perceptual Networks, Zingl, Engage (then rebranded to Ignighter group dating, then rebranded again to StepOut), Thread, Triangulate, Gelato (then rebranded to Twnty), WooMe, 12Like, LittleHint, SmartDate  and others?

Recently HowAboutWe internationalized and went free in in 30+ Countries but mobile applications like them are marketing tools to migrate free users to paid online dating sites, like Tinder and Twoo useful to migrate users to Match and Meetic, and make them pay there. It seems other social dating applications are decaying fast, like Badoo, Zoosk, Skout, Twine, AreYouInterested, etc, because If man A likes playing cards and woman B also likes playing cards, that does not mean man A likes woman B, or woman B can like man A with the same intensity or interest. Social dating is vaporware.

Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient. It needs to reduce the false positives problem.

The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment: STRICT PERSONALITY SIMILARITY and not "meet other people with similar interests"
The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 - 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment. 
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

With less than USD10 Million you can copycat eHarmony
 innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry, killing those old & obsolete sites forever.

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