Thursday, February 28, 2013

article "Love In The Time Of GPS"



Just read the article "Love In The Time Of GPS" at OnlinePersonalsWatch
"It's more natural, you're out and about," said Brooks, who predicts that dating via mobile phone will change the game profoundly because apps can gather instantaneous feedback about how a date went, resulting in better matches. "People don't really know what they want, so the best way to match people is to look at their behaviors," Brooks said. "Your phone is going to get to know you, it is going to get to know your buying behavior."

The best way to match people is by strict personality similarity.

Please remember the mobile concept is evolving: Almost 70% of all mobile usage takes place over a Wi-Fi Network! (mobile concept evolving, meaning tablets with Wi-Fi Network access rather than cell phones) SMS Still The Dominant Messaging Platform – 92% of Phone Users Use SMS (Data from comScore UK)
and
Behavioural Matching is vaporware (for serious daters. PlentyOfFish is the biggest Behavioural Matching site on Earth and it is a fiasco)



The 3 milestone discoveries of the 2001 - 2010 decade for Theories of Romantic Relationships Development are:
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences are useless)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.

---------------
By 2023 (because 2013 is too early), the association with Cell Phones high/intensive usage and gliomas, meningiomas, or acoustic neuromas risks will be clear. It will quite similar as the 20 years lag between smoking and lung cancer development.
Glioma is a broad category of brain and spinal cord tumors that come from glial cells, the main brain cells that can develop into tumors. The only risk factor for malignant gliomas is prior radiation to the brain. Family history accounts for less than 5% of causes for developing these tumors. Some genetic disorders increase the risk of development of these tumors in children but rarely in adults.

I bought a Siemens A31 cell phone last March 2006 and I still use it with its original battery since 2006!. I rarely talk no more than 10 minutes per month and send no more than 50 SMS's per month. I plan to still use it for the next years.

Tuesday, February 26, 2013

weAttract Releases Controversial Report on Online Dating Industry

"PRWEB -- Mar 9 2005 -- weAttract released a report today identifying seven opportunities and seven threats facing online dating sites. "


on page 22 says:



" ..... it should not be too surprising that online dating may have unanticipated consequences.
In fact, studies of major technologies and inventions (from cell phones to antibiotics, to cars) have found a repeated pattern of:
-Intensity of spread and excitement.
-Disaster or highly publicized damage is observed.
-Reform occurs in the industry.
-Vigilance by industry and consumers become necessary.

If online dating follows this trend, we can expect problems to arise that will bring the intensity period to an end. This is not an inevitable cycle. The question for the online dating industry is: What level of disaster will it take to lead to reform and new guidelines in the industry? Will the disaster have to occur on your own site before you make changes?
..........."



It was written nearly 8 long years ago!
It had several mistakes!
but ... it is still valid if you consider that there are NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY!!!
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW. Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier!
You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.

That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier", in 2003, when I had discovered than problem, 10 long years ago.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to INNOVATE and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.


High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.



Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

Monday, February 25, 2013

PAPER "Personality and Bargaining Power"

PAPER "Personality and Bargaining Power"


"We designed a bargaining experiment to test the hypothesis that an individuals' economic choices and outcomes are significantly affected by the personality of others, measured in terms of the Big Five model. Output was produced by a worker, and a manager decided how this output was divided between them. The two parties regularly interacted face-to-face. Our results attribute a significant effect of the worker's personality on her bargaining power: agreeableness was associated with significantly lower earnings for the worker (roughly 8% per standard deviation). This effect was robust to model specifications, and increased gradually as managers learned their workers' personality traits. We also studied possible channels for this effect and rejected the hypothesis that the worker's opinion of the manager infl
uenced the manager's decisions."

 Please remember:
Big5 versions are good for guidance (for orientation) purposes but not good enough for predictive purposes.

 "Because the Big Five groups the more specific primary-level factors, feedback organized around the five Global Factor scales is more easily understood. For detailed feedback or predictive purposes, one should assess the more specific primary factors. Research has shown that more specific factors like the primary scales of the 16PF Questionnaire predict actual behavior better than the Big 5 Global Factors. For example, one extravert (a bold, fearless, high-energy type) may differ considerably from another (a sweet, warm, sensitive type), depending on the extraversion-related primary scale score patterns, so deeper analysis is typically warranted." Extracted from the 16PF5 Manual.

 See also:
Commingling analysis is a statistical method for distinguishing between one (usually normal) distribution and a mixture of two or more distributions.


 WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!
 


 High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.

100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!


Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.
 

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

New legislation can kill free sites like POF (PlentyOfFish)

Recently, a man was accused of raping woman he met on Christian Mingle and a woman sues Match for USD10 million.

New Legislation to rule Online Dating Sites can kill free online dating proposals like POF  (PlentyOfFish) if that Legislation forces to conduct ID verification or background checks, or to keep records for 5/10 years. 

Please remember the Jana Claudia Gómez Menéndez case
and
the Sonia Varaschin case. (not sure if she was related to PlentyOfFishA denounce never investigated???)
 


Have you seen how Match Japan operates?
It has little traffic but Japaneses need to upload up to 7 certificates to increase reliability of their profiles.
eHarmony Japan also offered those features.

The Online Dating Industry has no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms.
No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
BUT
A variety of new laws, or new interpretations of existing laws, could subject dating sites to claims or otherwise harm their business.

The Online dating disruption panel at iDate Las Vegas.

Interesting to read full transcription.

"Dan Winchester: I would argue that there hasn't been any meaningful disruption in the last 13 years. The closest I'd say anyone has come to disruption is the free space. POF claims to have more users than any other dating site. And Match.com paid USD90 million for a company with USD3 million worth of revenue (he is naming OkCupid). I do think there is still the possibility that free dating could usurp paid dating and the industry just gets smaller financially."
I agree but the revenue of POF is in the range of USD40 million meanwhile IAC Personals is in the range of USD750 million. POF has the traffic but IAC Personals has the money. And new Legislation can kill free online dating proposals like POF if Legislation forces to conduct ID verification or background checks.


"Brian Bowman: ...... the biggest reason dating hasn't innovated is the business model and this 1990 model of charging to communicate obfuscates all kinds of innovation. "
I agree because paid online dating sites have high acquisition costs, they can not abandon the attracting, converting and retaining marketing stages; the automatic renewal of their members subscriptions with dirty credit-card billing trickery.

"Brian Bowman: ...... So the major innovation in dating is going to be infusing social networking, social profiles, who you know in common, who your friends are on top of the dating process. "
I DO NOT agree at all! Social dating / social discovering is vaporware.


"Larry Cervantes: I think instead of being disruptive, a lot of what we call innovation is simply adoption and implementation ... "
I agree. Pure imitation, no innovation at all.  Innovations are not adding more bells and whistles to actual online dating sites.


"Steve Carter: Facebook doesn't really know that much about us, you know who knows a lot about us? It’s Google. Does anyone know why Google hasn’t entered this space?"
Facebook does not know your …………… personality!
Google also does not know your …………… personality!

I do not think Google (annual revenue over USD31Billion) could be interested in the Online Dating Industry (because people could accuse Google of big monopoly and that could hurt its big revenue), but I think Google could need a Personality Based Recommender System.

-------------------------------------------

NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW. Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier!
You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.

That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier", in 2003, when I had discovered than problem, 10 long years ago.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to INNOVATE and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.


High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.



Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.


new PsyCh Journal

PsyCh Journal is the flagship journal of the Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences – the only national psychology  research institute in China – and reflects the high research standards of the nation.


[Hope they can prove Eastern Asiatic persons (Chinese, Japanese, Taiwanese, Koreans, etc) are the ET’s in the Earth.]


Free days at eHarmony (USA)

Recently, eHarmony had offered some free communication days.









Friday, February 15, 2013

article "Science Shows Dating Websites Aren’t Better At Finding You Love"

TechCrunch had published the article "Science Shows Dating Websites Aren’t Better At Finding You Love"

The article is mostly based on the research conducted by Dr. Eli Finkel et al and published 1 year ago.

The writer and journalist Lori Gottlieb (March 2006) noted about the growing number of Internet dating sites that are using the science of attraction to match singles: "their efforts mark the early days of a social experiment of unprecedented proportions, involving millions of couples and possibly extending over the course of generations"

"online dating" is a broad concept to define a large group of different proposals.


NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW. Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier! You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.

Monday, February 11, 2013

More info from IAC FY2012 report


 Additional report on metrics.
They need to innovate.
My bet: they will launch a new compatibility (personality profiling) site using copycats of the 16PF5 test soon.
I had challenged them to offer compatibility distribution curves.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon.

Friday, February 8, 2013

free vs paid sites


Recently the IAC, had acquired a new rotten fish, Speeddate. They can not innovate any more and acquire online dating companies in order to lower high acquisition costs from paid online dating sites (they can not abandon the attracting, converting and retaining marketing stages; the automatic renewal of their members's subscriptions with dirty credit-card billing trickery).

Free/freemium online dating sites like PlentyOfFish and OKCupid are only marketing tools useful to send prospective customers to paid online dating sites like Chemistry and eHarmony.
When free users got tired of free sites, they migrate to a paid one.


Revenue of IAC Personals (Match, Chemistry, OKCupid, Meetic, ParPerfeito, MeeticAffinity, SinglesNet, People's Media Communities, DateHookUp and others) is in the range of USD750 million.
Revenue of eHarmony' sites (USA, Canada, Australia, UK and Brazil) is in the range of USD250 million.

Revenue of IAC Personals + Revenue of eHarmony' sites == USD1,000 Million == USD1B

Revenue of PlentyOfFish Media's sites (PlentyOfFish, eVow and several dating sites powered by a white label dating company) is in the range of USD40 million.

USD40million / USD1,000 Million == 4% of market (in revenue).
PlentyOfFish has the traffic but others receive the money.


Anyway the market remains enormous for new players.

The IAC instead of acquired Speeddate, they should had put USD10 million and develop a new compatibility matching site to replace Chemistry.







"2 Million active daily registered users in the US
550,000 active daily registered users in the UK
450,000 active daily registered users in Canada"
"Signing up approximately 1 million new users every week. Only about 7% of them are paying us."
-------------------------------------------

NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW.
Because they are in the range of 3 to 4 prospective mates as selected / recommended / compatible for dating purposes per 1,000 members screened in the database. They all 3 are performing the same for serious daters, with a high percentage of false positives, like gun machines firing flowers.
They can not break the online dating sound barrier!
You do not need to improve a piston engine when you need a jet engine to break sound barrier.

That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier", in 2003, when I had discovered than problem, 10 long years ago.

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking "the online dating sound barrier" is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 7.0 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to INNOVATE and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.


High precision in matching algorithms is precisely the key to open the door and leave the infancy of compatibility testing.
It is all about achieving the eighth decimal!
With 8 decimals, you have more precision than any person could achieve by searching on one's own, but the only way to achieve the eighth decimal is using analysis and correlation with quantized patterns.



Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry
All other proposals are NOISE and perform as placebo.

Thursday, February 7, 2013

IAC Q4 2012 and FY 2012







MATCH (in thousands)      Q4 2012     Q4 2011    Growth
Paid Subscribers
Core (e)                                     1,803       1,664       8 %
Developing (f)                                240         270      -11 %
Meetic (g)                                     769         762         1 %
Total Paid Subscribers                 2,811       2,696       4 %

(e) Core consists of Match in the United States, Chemistry and People Media.
(f) Developing includes OkCupid, DateHookup and Match's international operations, excluding Meetic S.A.
(g) Meetic consists of the publicly traded personals company Meetic S.A., which operates principally in Europe.

NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW.

See also
IAC/InterActive' CEO Discusses Q4 2012 Results - Earnings call Transcript

The unexploited Latin American Market remains enormous!

9+ years old but still valid presentation from the IAC

------------------------
WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites
but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar) to assess personality of its members!
but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!
but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!
but no one is scientifically proven!


What comes after Social Networking?
My bet: The Next Big Investment Opportunity on the Internet will be .... Personalization!
Personality Based Recommender Systems and Strict Personality Based Compatibility Matching Engines for serious Online Dating with the normative 16PF5 personality test. 

 

Wednesday, February 6, 2013

Meetic Group / 2012 Annual results

2012 consolidated annual revenue totalled Euros164.8 million, down 7.5% on the previous year. 2012 marketing expense totalled Euros77.6 million or 47.1% of revenue, compared to Euros92.5 million and 52.0% of revenue in 2011.


NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 

Actual matching algorithms used by eHarmony, Chemistry, PlentyOfFish and others, even behavioural recommender systems, can not be improved, they need to be discarded NOW.




Read also about high acquisition costs, they can not abandon the attracting, converting and retaining marketing stages; the automatic renewal of their members's subscriptions with dirty credit-card billing trickery.

Saturday, February 2, 2013

too late and unnecessary!

Mark Brooks form Online Personals Watch had interviewed Dr. Neil Clark Warren (78), CEO of eHarmony, at iDate2013 Las Vegas Superconference.
TOO LATE and UNNECESSARY.  It would had been the same if he had interviewed the Queen of England.
I live in a South American country and I am really astonished to see how online daters in "1st World" countries are really victims of human experimentation.

NO INNOVATIONS SINCE YEARS IN THE ONLINE DATING INDUSTRY.
C level executives are cooking barbecues under the water (selling smoke) and not paying attention to latest research from Academics which could be beneficial for the Online Dating Industry. Wasting precious time with Matchmakers which should be obsolete. 


eHarmony is a 12+ years old obsolete site and a HOAX, based on a big scientific fraud.
Success rate is less than 10%, performing as placebo.
eHarmony is not "scientifically proven" because eHarmony Labs could not prove eHarmony's matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships -and very low divorce rates- than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer reviewed Scientific Paper.