Friday, December 30, 2011

Chemistry offers 3 months for the price of 1


Chemistry offers 3 months for the price of 1 and there are free communications days at eHarmony  USA, Canada, Brazil, Australia and UK December 30th to January 2nd.

It seems both titans are trying to captivate new users or returning users before launching their new sites using the 16PF5 or similar test.

Free communications days at eHarmony




Free communications days at eHarmony Brazil, Australia and UK December 30th to January 2nd.
but not  USA and Canada? USA and Canada as well

What is happening at eHarmony headquarters?
Anyone knows?
Are they testing a new compatibility matching algorithm using the 16PF5 and they plan to launch in a new independent site soon?

Thursday, December 29, 2011

marketing campaigns for Parperfeito (Brazil) and Match in Argentina.


I remember a previous interview in July 2011 where the Latam CEO had said:
"Currently the most popular dating site in the web has 60 million members in Latin America: 30 million in Brazil, 8 million in Mexico, 4 million in Argentina, Colombia with 3 million and 500 thousand in Chile."


but now Match Latam claims over 30 million registered persons.


Match is morphing to a big social dating site, but its prices are very high.
MySpace is a big social dating application at Facebook.
Facebook is full of social dating applications.
Badoo is a very big social dating site, it offers micro-payments to increase your visibility or send virtual goods as presents.
Even PlentyOfFish (POF) is a social dating site for fun, not serious dating. Nearly the same persons who paid to Match USA & Canada are the ones who want to use PlentyOfFish for free, paying with precious time.

See 2 different marketing campaigns for Parperfeito (Brazil) and Match in Argentina.


There are some tricks to use Match for free.
It is customary for many daters in Latin American countries to use the same nickname as their Microsoft/Yahoo Instant Messenger Address when registering in forums or dating sites.
i.e.
Suppose you see the profile of a woman whose nickname is JenniferSampleCow001
you can try the following instant messaging accounts.

JenniferSampleCow001 at hotmaildotcom
JenniferSampleCow001 at hotmaildotcomdotar if she is from Argentina
JenniferSampleCow001 at hotmaildotcomdotbr if she is from Brazil
JenniferSampleCow001 at livedotcomdotar if she is from Argentina
JenniferSampleCow001 at livedotcomdotbr if she is from Brazil
JenniferSampleCow001 at livedotcom
JenniferSampleCow001 at yahoodotcom
JenniferSampleCow001 at yahoodotcomdotar if she is from Argentina
JenniferSampleCow001 at yahoodotcomdotbr if she is from Brazil
That is why sites like Parhip does not allow you to choose your nickname and shows you profiles' names with a code (like ESFN3KTG, FS0MXG3F, ES94Z3PR and so on, to avoid any person can communicate for free, without paying the subscription)


Remember: Social networking/applications could merge with online dating for fun, for flirting, for entertainment purposes, for instant gratification. Social networking and online dating for serious daters are like water and oil, they will never mix. Online Dating for serious daters does not need to be more social, it needs to be more effective/efficient. It needs to reduce the false positives problem.
The Online Dating Industry needs innovations but they will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment.
Compatibility is all about a high level on personality* similarity* between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
*personality measured with a normative test.
*similarity: there are different ways to calculate similarity, it depends on how mathematically is defined.

Match Latam NEW compatibility matching system

Match Latam claims over 30 million registered persons.
They are Basic, Gold and Platinum members.
Platinum members can communicate with Basic, Gold and Platinum members.
Gold members can communicate with Gold and Platinum members.
Basic users can communicate with Platinum members only.

But my bet is the majority of those 30 million registered persons are inactive or fake profiles.

Match Latam offers a compatibility system which does not include any personality test.
It is available in Spanish (Castilian), Rioplatense Spanish (uses voseo), English, French, Portuguese and German.












"Cupid is a sophisticated data search and cross-tabulation system developed to help bring you closer to your perfect Match.
The tool works in the following way:
1 – The high precision system identifies users that are 70% or more compatible with you;
2 – The system then sends you an e-mail, informing the results of this search based on order of relevance;
3 – It informs you about those individuals shown to be 70% or more compatible with you who have recently changed their profile."
http://www.match.com.ar/ajuda/cupido/?lang=1

 " high precision " ????







That high precision compatibility system seems to be a mutual filtering method combined with a behavioural recommender system (most probably quite similar to the UltraMatch feature from PlentyOfFish / POF). Of course it is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. It is a HOAX, only for fun purposes, performing as an ice-breaker.

Every time a woman reviews your profile, a pop up window appears and suggest you to invite her to VideoChat.  When you click, the subscribe window appears

I suspect OkCupid Labs, part of Match's Team, is developing a very advanced compatibility matching method using the normative personality test 16PF5 to be launched in an independent site to replace Chemistry.
Match Japan still uses Chemistry inside as its primary compatibility matching system.




Wednesday, December 28, 2011

Match Latam NEW SITE


- Match Latam powered by Meetic.
- available in English, Spanish and Portuguese.
- claims over 30 million registered persons.
- an average of 10,000 new users *are registering every day*
- Basic, Gold and Platinum members.





"About Us
Welcome to Match.
Here you'll interact with 30 million of people who are determined to meeting their partners.
Match began its operations in January 2000. As the years went by, we were happy to receive hundreds of e-mails, thanking us for loves, relationships, weddings, and children who were born! "
http://www.match.com.ar/empresa/?lang=1

"Match is the absolute leader for online dating and relationships in Brazil and Latin America. There are more than 21 million registered users and an average of 10,000 new users *are registering every day*. What do these people have in common?"
http://www.match.com.ar/?lang=1

"Cupid is a sophisticated data search and cross-tabulation system developed to help bring you closer to your perfect Match.
The tool works in the following way:
1 – The high precision system ??? identifies users that are 70% or more compatible with you;
2 – The system then sends you an e-mail, informing the results of this search based on order of relevance;
3 – It informs you about those individuals shown to be 70% or more compatible with you who have recently changed their profile."
http://www.match.com.ar/ajuda/cupido/?lang=1

"5 - Do I have to pay to use Match?
Match is a relationship service with free registration. Basic users have the right to a series of benefits, including: perform advanced searches, insert a photo in the profile and maintain unlimited contact with Platinum users via Mail and VideoChat.
To make the most of all the website tools, it is necessary to become a Gold or Platinum member. For those who are really serious about finding a certain kind of person with more convenience and speed, there are the Gold and Platinum plans, which are paid. As a Gold member: You will be able to talk via VideoChat with other paying users, read and respond to ALL e-mails received and send your romantic issues to Be+. Furthermore, you will receive the benefits of the guaranteed customer support service via e-mail!
As a Platinum user: You will be able to talk via VideoChat with all users (Basic, Gold and Platinum) and all users will be able to read and respond to your e-mails unlimitedly. Take advantage of this feature! "
http://www.match.com.ar/ajuda/contas//?lang=1











The new site does not include any more Cupido Diario (Chemistry inside)
COMPARE to the old version:
"Some news about Match Argentina"

Monday, December 26, 2011

Zoosk, a deflating bubble!


Alexa shows Zoosk, the 4 years old "romantic social network",  had suffered a sudden drop in traffic rank some months ago.
I do not think it is due a big mobile adoption rate.
Perhaps their daters are becoming tired of Zoosk.
Or are they running out of money?

Zoosk had received a ton of money, over USD 40.5 million, from venture funds, but Zoosk can not revolutionize the Online Dating Industry. They only made some noise during 2010.

Zoosk will be a "stupid investors case of study" for several venture funds.

Thursday, December 22, 2011

The next Online Dating Industry big scandal.

Many of you are well aware about the:

Dannon's Activia, DanActive health claims draw USD21M fine.

Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit

The PIP breast implants scandal.
The 2010 was the year of the "PIP scandal". Thousands of women throughout the world carrying a time bomb: prosthesis with uncertified gel, increased risk of rupture and leak into ganglions, increase risk of developing capsular contractures.

and some "weak" lawsuits againts online dating sites like:
More Than Half Of Match Profiles Are Inactive Or Fake

I live in a South American country and I am really astonished to see how online daters in "1st World" countries are really victims of human experimentation.

The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with low successful rates.
The Online Dating Industry is selling elixirs, tonics, snake oil liniments and other patent medicine and performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created where any player can make any claim without any credentials.

The Online Dating Industry needs a major earthquake, a major cataclysm to extinguish those large dinosaurs (Match/Chemistry, eHarmony, PerfectMatch, True, Be2, Parship, Meetic and others) that all they did until now were scamming paying members with marketing and credit card billing trickery.

Wednesday, December 21, 2011

iDate 2012 funny agenda!

Internet Dating Industry Super Conference 2012

PRE-EVENT: January 23, 2012    
9:00 AM Introduction to the Online Dating Business
Speaker: Mark Brooks
He is going to regurgitate the same stats since 2004.
C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company's long term strategy and innovations. The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria. They are precisely marketing executives from big sites. They use credit card billing trickery. Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years. The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created. There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms. No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven. 
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%).
The Online Dating Industry needs a major cataclysm to extinguish the big, old and obsolete dinosaurs (eHarmony, Match/Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Meetic, Parship, etc)

9:00 AM Business Models for Matchmaking
The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters.
----------------------------------------------
DAY ONE: January 24, 2012    

8:55 AM
Keynote Address: Then and Now: The Online Dating Industry & How it All Began
Speaker: Gary Kremen (the founder of Match) will discuss how the company was started in 1994, how it developed over the years and where the industry is now???
Kremen sold Match in early stage. What does he really know about the Online Dating Industry and the Innovations it needs? Nothing.

10:45 AM
2011 Year in Review: The Online Personals Industry
Speaker: Mark Brooks
Jazzed failed / eHarmony Japan called iHamoni never launched / eHarmony USA, CA, UK, AU losing traffic , and Match failed with Chemistry, a 6+ years old and obsolete site, a complete fiasco and MeeticAffinity in Europe, another HOAX.
PlentyOfFish, the wolf in sheep's clothing, had been only making noise in the Online Dating Industry, but it can not revolutionize nothing. It failed to be the next free eHarmony with its PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then renamed to the PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor, then renamed again PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then failed with eVow, its entirely paid proposal, then will fail with its new paid UltraMatch feature, a Behavioural Recommendation Engine. (little birdie told me it does not perform as expected, and nearly nobody pays for that feature)

Expect a NEW major Lawsuit in USA against paid dating sites for fraud (fake profiles, inactive profiles and automatic rebilling trickery), like the one about Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit.
----------------------------------------------
DAY TWO: January 25, 2012

DATING BUSINESS: EQUITY AND VALUE
9:00 AM Equity: How A Dating Business is sold for USD50 Million
Speaker: Sam Yagan from OKCupid
That sold was only a lucky strike, nothing more.

THE ERIC HOLZLE MEMORIAL SESSION: DATING ALGORITHM TRACK
10:30 AM [PANEL] Dating Algorithms
Speaker: Dr. Pepper Schwartz, the brain behind PerfectMatch, based on an ipsative test, the MBTI, obsolete site, in decadence.
Speaker: Gavin Potter, Intro Analytics, an stupidity behavioural recommender system, useless at all for serious dating
Speaker: Sam Yagan OKCupid, Yagan is working for Match at OkCupidLabs trying to copy LIFEPROJECT method, I suspect.
Speaker: Dr. Eli Finkel, science of attraction, but what is important in attracting people to one another IS NOT important in making couples happy!
Speaker: Larry Michael Match Matrix, an stupidity based on modified biorhythms.

11:00 AM Trends in High-end Online Dating
Speaker: Philipp Triebel (CEO) ExistVenture (IvyDate)
Ha, ha, ha, I know him and he is not an expert in the  High-end Online Dating.

WORLDWIDE DATING MARKETS
1:30 PM The European Dating Market
Speaker: Peter Schmid (CEO) Parship
Parship is a HOAX and a 10+ years old obsolete site with any scientific support!

2:00 PM South American Dating Market
Speaker: Sebastian Hofman Laursen (Gerente General) Net Innovation Group
Ha, ha, ha, he had failed in South America with DatingChile and DatingArgentina.
Remember, the FREE model is dead!
Free Online Dating Sites, ads supported only like OasisActive, AmorenLinea, DatingChile or DatingArgentina,  had failed even in the South American Market, where nobody has credits cards or nobody wants to pay for a membership.
Only ads supported sites failed because operating costs are bigger than revenue; and other previously free sites had morphed to freemium ones like OkCupid and PlentyOfFish; they both had paid options with their free proposals.

2:00 PM Science & Technology Trends in Online Dating
Speaker: Linda van Liempt (CEO) Soul2Match
Although Soul2Match's and FindYourFaceMate's personality similarity approach are correct, how they assess personality (indirect method to measure the Big5 traits, ADDS DISTORTION to the measurement) and how Soul2Match and Find Your FaceMate calculate similarity (low precision method, I guess similarity is calculated using Pearson's product moment coefficient) is incorrect.
Compatibility is expressed only as a percentage, from 0% to 100%.
 Soul2Match and Find Your FaceMate suffer from the range convergence phenomenon I had discovered during 2003. That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier"
Who independently validated and independently certified how that profiling technology correlates with the Big5 traits?
I will want to see a paper showing Soul2Match/Find Your FaceMate correlates with the Big5 traits (like the one for the Dewey Color System showing its correlation with the 16PF and the distortion it adds.)
"FaceReader from Profiler1: Personality Traits analysis based on facial features." a complete waste of time for serious daters because it uses an ipsative model, not a normative one.

----------------------------------------------
DAY THREE: January 26, 2012   
10:40 AM iDate Startup: Startup Company
Speaker: Brian Bowman (CEO) theCompleteme
Thecompleteme is an online social dating company founded by a former VP Match who is not an entrepreneur; he is only a "marketinero", a smoke seller, but he can not innovate in nothing. It is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

11:20 AM iDate Startup: Startup Company
Speaker: Lorenz Bogaert (CEO) TWOO
TWOO? The same as theCompleteme, a copycat of Badoo, Yangutu, Mamboo, etc
--------------------
ONLY ONE ROAD TO ACHIEVE INNOVATIONS  The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment. Only 3 major discoveries can help to revolutionize the online dating industry.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar test) to assess personality of its members.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
All the new & fresh research shows STRICT personality similarity as the right road to go.
Even in Personality Based Recommender Systems, which are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.

eHarmony and IAC's Personals will launch new compatibility (personality profiling) sites, both using copycats of the 16PF5 test. I had put them under high pressure revealing in advance their plans to each other. I had challenged them to offer Compatibility Distribution Curves for each and every dater, i.e. how compatible you are with the rest of the daters.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon, comparing both proposals in my blog. My bet is both Match and eHarmony are going to fail with those new sites. They need the knowledge I have about how to compare quantized patterns with high precision.
Remember: eHarmony had stayed 11 years in the Online Dating Industry without innovating, saying "scientifically proven" and eHarmony does not have any proof; with a low success rate and high level of false positives, scamming members with automatic rebilling and other credit cards trickery.


Breaking “the online dating sound barrier” is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 6.7 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

The Worldwide Online Dating Market 2012 / Spanish version.

Los sitios de citas online (online dating, contactos personales) pueden ser
1.0: potentes motores de búsquedas,
ó
2.0: potentes motores de recomendación bidireccionales (como Match) algunos basados en preferencias personales y otros en comportamiento (behavioural recommender systems)
ó
3.0: algoritmos de compatibilidad (como eHarmony, MeeticAffinity, Parship, Chemistry, etc).

La mayoría de los sitios de citas online usan modelos de personalidad normativos como el Big5 o modelos propietarios ipsativos (de autodescripción), no hay ninguno que use el test normativo de personalidad 16PF5. Hay más de 5.000 sitios de contactos personales en el mundo pero todos están en el orden de 3 o 4 personas que presentan como "compatibles" por cada 1.000 escaneadas, o sea una muy baja precisión, baja tasa de éxito en formación de parejas estables y felices menor al 10%. Funcionan como si fueran un casino virtual, las personas que logran éxito son una minoría. Además en online dating, el sitio es exitoso si pierde los clientes porque lograron pareja estable, los debe perder de a 2. No tiene repetición de compra pero si recomendación.

A nivel mundial la Industria de Contactos Personales (Online Dating) factura más de 2.000 millones de dólares (Match/Chemistry/OkCupid/YahooPersonals/People's Media Communities/Meetic/MeticAffinity: 650 millones de dólares anuales, eHarmony: 280 millones de dólares, PlentyOfFish 40 millones de dólares)
En toda Latinoamérica el mercado potencial es enorme, pero sólo hay propuestas de mala calidad. Algunas ya extintas como Pachetes, AlguienAQuienQuerer, Be2, CupidoVirtual de Meetic (asociado a MercadoLibre); y las vigentes como Match, TeBusco y Zonacitas están en decadencia desde hace años porque son propuestas del tipo 1.0, motores de búsqueda; gerenciadas por marketineros que no saben cómo innovar ni cuáles son las últimas tendencias en la Industria de Online Dating.
Zonacitas tiene un "traffic rank" de 1,330 en Argentina en diciembre de 2011 según Alexa.

Hay otros jugadores como Cupid plc (antes EasyDate) que desea ofrecer su propuesta en Latinoamérica, además de otros proyectos lanzados durante 2011 como DatingArgentina, DatingChile, OasisActive AmorenLinea pero por ser modelos gratuito, que recaudan dinero mayormente por anuncios publicitarios, no lograron despegar, posiblemente porque los costos operativos superan los ingresos. CitasWeb intentó resucitar en Facebook durante 2011 pero fracasó.
El grupo europeo Meetic que en Brasil incluye ParPerfeito está en decadencia, fue vendido en su totalidad a IAC's Personals, dueña de Match, Chemistry y otros sitios.

eHarmony es un sitio de contactos personales serios basado en valores Cristianos y en similitud de personalidad, orientado principalmente a países angloparlantes (Estados Unidos, Canadá, Australia y Gran Bretaña) aunque lanzaron la versión Brasileña sin éxito y fracasaron también en Japón. La personalidad se mide con el Big5 (grandes 5 factores de personalidad) y la similitud se calcula usando Escala de Ajuste Diádico (DAS) inventada por Spanier en 1976. Tiene una tasa de éxito de menos del 10%. El problema no está en la honestidad de las personas que toman el test, sino en la forma de calcular similitud con DAS y en medir la personalidad con Big5 y no con el 16PF5.

También fracasó Jazzed, el sitio de búsqueda de eHarmony, y eHarmony Japón (iHamoni) no fue lanzado.

Los sitios de contactos personales de uso gratuito como OKCupid y PlentyOfFish sólo sirven para convertir usuarios en clientes de sitios de contactos pagos como Chemistry y eHarmony una vez que esos usuarios se cansan emocionalmente de perder tiempo en sitios gratuitos, llenos de perfiles falsos. Más del 90% de la publicidad que se muestra en sitios de contactos gratuitos es de publicidad de sitios de contactos pagos.
Aunque durante 2011, tanto OKCupid y PlentyOfFish pasaron a ser sitios freemium, incluyendo opciones pagas como UltraPareja de PlentyOfFish, también llamando UltraMatch en Estados Unidos y Canadá; que es un motor de recomendación basado en comportamiento.

Desde 2003 que he estado testeando varios sitios de contactos personales usando perfiles falsos como marcadores.
Todos los sitios de contactos personales pagos a nivel mundial están estancados y algunos en decadencia porque sólo están respaldados por grandes presupuestos de marketing y no por evidencia científica seria. No hay ninguno que pueda demostrar -en un paper con referato y usando el método de doble_ciego- que el algoritmo de compatibilidad que ofrecen, puede formar parejas que vayan a tener una estabilidad y una satisfacción mayor que las parejas formadas por búsqueda propia, por azar, por destino astrológico o con otro método como grupo de control. La única forma de innovar es aprovechando los últimos descubrimientos científicos sobre teorías de relaciones románticas con compromiso.

Para las propuestas como speeddating (citas rápidas), desafortunadamente está científicamente probado por los Dres. Kurzban y Weeden (2005) que investigaron en HurryDate, que la mayoría de los participantes van con ciertas pretensiones que se desvanecen apenas se conocen personalmente y es sólo para relaciones románticas de corto plazo, para una gratificación instantánea.
Los Dr. Eastwick & Finkel (2008) descubrieron que las personas a menudo tienen pretensiones de preferencias de pareja que no son compatibles con sus opciones en la vida real.
En 2010 fue replicado y ampliado ese descubrimiento por el Dr. Lars Penke y colaboradores
En el trabajo científico (paper) "Why Mate Choices are not as Reciprocal as we Assume: The Role of Personality, Flirting and Physical Attractiveness / ¿Por qué la selección de pareja no es tan recíproca como suponemos?: El papel de la personalidad, coqueteo y el atractivo físico" (2010)
Los resultados muestran que las elecciones reales de pareja no son recíprocas, aunque las personas esperan de ser correspondidas con sus elecciones.
y en
"From Dating to Mating and Relating: Predictors of Initial and Long-Term Outcomes of Speed-Dating in a Community Sample. De Citas a formar parejas y de éstas al compromiso. Predictores de resultados iniciales y a largo plazo en citas rápidas en una muestra de Alemania" (2010)
Un estudio de 1 año de duración entre participantes de speeddating encontró, la probabilidad de formar pareja era de 6% y que esa pareja fuera estable de 4% y dependía del interés de largo plazo en las mujeres y del corto plazo en los varones. Los 3 minutos para tomar decisiones en speeddating no eran suficientes para descubrir todos los factores de similitud entre los prospectivos cónyuges.

MatchMatrix es un sitio de contactos personales basado en biorritmos modificados, sólo solicita ingresar la fecha de nacimiento de uno y de la posible pareja para calcular un porcentaje de compatibilidad. Es un fraude que fue refutado por el Dr. James Houran de los Estados Unidos de América.

Match funciona un sitio 1.0, pero la opción Cupido Diario (Daily5) de Match en Argentina, es equivalente a Chemistry en Estados Unidos (allá son sitios separados, Match y Chemistry, pero en el resto del mundo Chemistry se renombra como Daily5 y es un apéndice de Match)
Chemistry es 3.0, un algoritmo de compatibilidad, que divide a las personas en Explorers / Exploradores, Builders / Tradicionales, Directors / Líderes y Negotiatiors / Negociadores y combinaciones de ellas. Hasta ahora sólo demostró que los Explorers buscan a los Explorers para formar parejas, los Builders a otros Builders y los Directors a los Negotiatiors y viceversa, pero no pudo demostrar que puede formar parejas estables con alta satisfacción y estabilidad en un paper científico con referato.

La Dra. Helen Fisher (antropóloga) descubrió durante 2004/2005 usando resonancia magnética para escanear el cerebro de personas locamente enamoradas, que existen 4 circuitos cerebrales básicos relacionados con el nivel de hormonas y la etapa INICIAL de relaciones románticas. El de la serotonina, el de la dopamina, el de los estrógenos y el de la testosterona. Estos 4 circuitos cerebrales se combinan para dar 3 sistemas, el de la lujuria, el del amor_romántico y el del compromiso (apego). Su trabajo científico se aprovechó en un sitio de contactos personales (citas en la web) denominado Chemistry con relativo/poco éxito hasta ahora porque no ha podido demostrar en forma fehaciente que su método pueda formar parejas que van a tener una estabilidad y una satisfacción mayor que las parejas formadas por búsqueda propia como grupo de control.

ScientificMatch, Basisnote, Genepartner (LittleHint) y los que ofrecen DNA matching, son un fraude porque están basados en el experimento de la remera sudada (T-shirt experiment) donde un grupo de mujeres calificaban olores a sudor de varones como atractivos, neutros o repulsivos. En algunos casos las mujeres se sentían atraídas por el olor a sudor de un varón que tuviera un Complejo Principal de Histocompatibilidad (MHC) lo más diferente al de ellas (no atraídas por el varón, sino por el olor a sudor del varón impregnado en una camiseta) Fue refutado por Alvergne & Lummaa en "Does the contraceptive pill alter mate choice in humans?" 2009 Las mujeres que tienen sus períodos en forma normal presentan preferencias de selección de pareja de corto (en la fase ovulatoria) y largo plazo; mientras que las mujeres que usan tratamientos anticonceptivos hormonales (que simulan la concentración de hormonas del embarazo), anulan su preferencia de selección de pareja de corto plazo, buscan pareja estable, eligen compañeros similares a ellas en MHC

Match, Zonacitas, TeBusco, y otros sitios poseen un dossier de estadísticas y de frases hechas para contestarle al periodismo. Están gerenciados por marketineros, que no son especialistas en online dating, ni pueden innovar.
Al chequear el ranking y el tráfico de esos sitios usando Alexa se nota que no son tan populares como dicen y al confeccionar perfiles falsos (comodines) tanto de varones como de mujeres se pueder probar la dinámica de tales sitos, cómo es su funcionamiento real y descubrir que hay perfiles fichados desde hace años pero que son inactivos, que online dating permite buscar rápidamente a la persona que uno desearía encontrar pero lo más probable que esa persona no exista o que no quiera saber nada de uno porque no son compatibles. Que en un sitio 1.0, un motor de búsqueda, el 20% de los varones más activos son los que mandan el 80% de los mensajes a las mujeres, las mujeres generalmente nunca inician los contactos, sólo esperan ser contactadas, que las fotos de las mujeres están retocadas, hermoseadas, que los perfiles están maquillados usando autoalabanzas (los varones dicen ser más altos de lo que en realidad son y las mujeres dicen ser más bellas y flacas de lo que en realidad son).
Sitios como Pachetes y AlquienAQuienQuerer fracasaron porque ofrecían la misma propuesta actualmente vigente, no pudieron innovar, no se diferenciaban en nada de competidores, que en online dating cuando la base de datos se duplica, los costos operativos se triplican o cuatriplican, que muy pocos son los usuarios activos (que usan el sitio con asiduidad o que lo usaron en los últimos 3 meses) y menos los que pagan, que la estrategia de marketing es atraer usuarios prospectivos, tratar de convertirlos en clientes pagos y luego reternerlos indefinidamente con renovación automática si pagaron con tarjeta de crédito [Be2 colapsó por ese motivo, por automatic rebilling, estuvo bajo investigación por fraude en Europa], que las empresas no dan de baja los perfiles antiguos, los dejan como señuelos para seguir atrayendo potenciales clientes pagos, que si la campaña de marketing la hace un marketinero varón pensando la mujer de sus sueños que él quisiera conquistar, el sitio atrae varones y espanta mujeres, en menos de 6 meses colapsa solo porque no tiene perfiles femeninos.
Hace años que se sabe que aproximadamente el 30% de las personas que usan online dating son casadas o están en pareja y quieren una aventura (flirteo) o conseguir una pareja mejor.

Dos trabajos científicos recientes realizados por investigadores contratados por la propia Facebook muestran que Facebook, como toda red social, es para contactarse con personas que uno conoce de antemano y no para conocer gente nueva, no es para hacer nuevos amigos.  J. Ugander, B. Karrer, L. Backstrom, C. Marlow. "The Anatomy of the Facebook Social Graph" y L. Backstrom, P. Boldi, M. Rosa, J. Ugander, S. Vigna. "Four Degrees of Separation".
En Facebook hay varias aplicaciones de dating pero son todas para flirteo, para búsqueda de relaciones de corto plazo sin compromiso, no para formación de parejas estables.
Las redes sociales no son para citas en línea / buscar pareja (online dating) con fines serios. Hay 3 categorías independientes: redes sociales, contactos laborales y online dating que las personas que se toman su actividad profesional en serio y la búsqueda de contactos personales en serio, nunca mezclan con redes sociales.
Por eso la categoría conocida como "social dating" ofrecida por Badoo, Yangutu, Mamboo, TheCompleteMe, Twoo y otras son para gratificaciones instantáneas, para flirteo y no para fines serios.
Hay varios trabajos de investigación importantes realizados en Norteamérica y Europa que muestran que los perfiles de las redes sociales están "maquillados" con "autopresentaciones selectivas" y "autoalabanzas a la propia imagen" y los "amigos de tus amigos" u otras personas que no conozcan en persona de antemano al perfil que quieren evaluar van a tener una impresión falsa y se van a decepcionar. El único componente de la personalidad que es bien evaluado viendo perfiles es la Extraversión. [What lies beneath: The linguistic traces of deception in online dating profiles 2010 / Making Sense of Strangers' Expertise from Signals in Digital Artifacts 2009 / Personality Impressions Based on Facebook Profiles 2007]

Legislación: Sólo en Japón y Australia para algunos casos se exige fotocopia de la licencia de conducir para demostrar que el usuario/cliente es mayor de 18 años.

Normas de Calidad: El sitio Indio Shaadi es el único que posee calidad total en cuanto soporte y atención al cliente según ISO9001:2008

Los últimos trabajos científicos con referato, siguen la línea de SIMILITUD DE PERSONALIDAD entre los integrantes de una pareja para un matrimonio exitoso. Dos investigadores alemanes, Rammstedt & Schupp ( "Sólo los congruentes sobreviven. Similitud de personalidad en parejas" / "Only the congruent survive – Personality similarities in couples" 2008) analizaron 6909 parejas adultas representativas de la población Alemana, de diferentes edades y con varios años de matrimonio y descubrieron que sólo una gran similitud de personalidad entre los integrantes de una pareja es lo que sustenta la estabilidad de la misma y la satisfacción de sus integrantes; o sea las relaciones románticas de largo plazo con compromiso son exitosas si los integrantes de la pareja poseen una gran similitud de personalidad entre sí.
Hay otros trabajos científicos que muestran lo mismo (Charania & Ickes, 2009 / Rammstedt & Schupp, 2008 / Barelds & Dijkstra, 2008 / McCrae, Martin, Hrebícková, Urbánek, Boomsma et al. 2008 y otros) Siempre sucede que las personas con características opuestas se atraen, pero luego de un tiempo, se atacan entre sí (Buckwalter, 2005)

Muy pocas personas en el mundo están trabajando en mejorar los sitios de contactos personales, porque la mejora que hay que hacer no es en un 10% o en un 15%, sino en 100 veces mejor lo que ofrecen los competidores actuales en Estados Unidos, Canadá y Europa. Es romper una "barrera de sonido", porque no es realmente una mejora (improvement) sino una innovación (innovation). Lo que traen a la Argentina y LatinoAmérica son imitaciones de menor calidad de sitios de contactos personales (imitations) como CitasWeb, ZonaCitas, TeBusco, OasisActive, AmorenLinea, DatingArgentina, etc

Por eso mi blog se llama "Breaking the Online Dating Sound Barrier" y presento mi propio proyecto de online dating LIFEPROJECT METHOD

La única forma de innovar en el mercado de online dating es aprovechando los últimos descubrimientos científicos sobre teorías de relaciones románticas con compromiso, sólo una gran similitud de personalidad entre los cónyuges prospectivos es la clave para formación de parejas estables y felices.

Hay varias formas de medir personalidad y varias formas de calcular similitud entre patrones de personalidad.
Mi propio proyecto propone usar el test normativo de personalidad 16PF5 para medir personalidad.
El test normativo 16PF5 codifica la personalidad con 16 variables cuantizadas que toman valores de 1 a 10, por eso el conjunto de todas las posibilidades válidas es de 10E16 y la población mundial es de 7.0*10E9 Toda la población mundial no llega a ser 1 micro parte del ensemble del 16PF5. Muy pocas personas en el mundo están en condiciones de diseñar un método cuantitativo para comparar miles o millones de patrones cuantizados de personalidad entre sí con alta precisión, con por lo menos 8 decimales; sabiendo que es sólo una gran similitud de personalidad la clave para formación de parejas estables y felices, y eso es lo que inventé hace años y estoy tratando de lanzar al mercado, sin exito todavía.


Thursday, December 15, 2011

Parship receives a make up.


Meanwhile the people at eHarmony and IAC's Personals are both developing new compatibility sites, Parship receives only a make up, a new cover for the same book, a new collar for the same dog, er ... the same HOAX as 10 years ago.

Parship is a 10+ years old obsolete site and a HOAX.

"Parship’s scientifically-based compatibility matching compares 30 essential personality characteristics and recommends potential partners who balance and complement you." Those 30 essential personality characteristics are only the subdomains of the Big 5 model, 6 subdomains per trait.

Recently some stupid investors had put 3 Million Euro in eCift. eCift is Parship simplified and rebranded for the Turkish market.

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

The free model is dead

Have you noticed the purely free model is DEAD?

Free Online Dating Sites, ads supported only like OasisActive, AmorenLinea, DatingChile or DatingArgentina,  had failed even in the South American Market, where nobody has credits cards or nobody wants to pay for a membership.











Only ads supported sites failed because operating costs are bigger than revenue; and other previously free sites had morphed to freemium ones like OkCupid and PlentyOfFish; they both had paid options with their free proposals. They encourage you to upgrade your membership, to acquire their paid features like credits to send virtual gifts or to increase your visibility or to know if someone had read the message you had sent to.
Freemium sites also includes social dating sites like Badoo, Mamboo, Yangutu and others like them with several lines of revenue like ads, micropayments, selling data from their databases to third parties.
Freemium Online Dating Sites are only for fun, for entertainment purposes, for instant gratification, not for serious dating.


Purely paid sites will be only for serious dating. If a person does not pay his/her membership, it is because he/she does not want to be serious dating online.

Friday, December 9, 2011

Thecompleteme.



As expected/predicted here in this blog Thecompleteme is another Badoo copycat (like Mamboo, Yangutu, Twoo, etc)

Thecompleteme is an online social dating company founded by a former VP Match who is not an entrepreneur; he is only a "marketinero", a smoke seller, but he can not innovate in nothing. It is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

My bet: they are going to make some noise, peak and decay when they run out of money.

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Online Dating Industry 2012, full predictions.

eHarmony and IAC's Personals will launch new compatibility (personality profiling) sites, both using copycats of the 16PF5 test. I had put them under high pressure revealing in advance their plans to each other. I had challenged them to offer compatibility distribution curves.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon, comparing both proposals in my blog. My bet is both Match and eHarmony are going to fail with those new sites. They need the knowledge I have about how to compare quantized patterns with high precision.
Remember: eHarmony had stayed 11 years in the Online Dating Industry without innovating, saying "scientifically proven" and eHarmony does not have any proof; with a low success rate and high level of false positives, scamming members with automatic rebilling and other credit cards trickery. (Jazzed failed / eHarmony Japan called iHamoni never launched / eHarmony USA, CA, UK, AU losing traffic) and Match failed with Chemistry, a 6+ years old and obsolete site, a complete fiasco and MeeticAffinity in Europe, another HOAX.

PlentyOfFish, the wolf in sheep's clothing, had been only making noise in the Online Dating Industry, but it can not revolutionize nothing. It failed to be the next free eHarmony with its PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then renamed to the PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor, then renamed again PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then failed with eVow, its entirely paid proposal, then will fail with its new paid UltraMatch feature, a Behavioural Recommendation Engine. (little birdie told me it does not perform as expected, and nearly nobody pays for that feature)

 
Expect a NEW major Lawsuit in USA against paid dating sites for fraud (fake profiles, inactive profiles and automatic rebilling trickery), like the one about Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit.

Expect a major publicized hacking incident again at PlentyOfFish. Meetic was also hacked last January 2011 was not publicized.  In July 4th 2011 Match was hacked but it was not publicized.

True and PerfectMatch will be game over, they both failed to be reconverted.

Zoosk, will be the next Stupid Investors Series, they will lose over USD 40 million.

Badoo will be revealed as a big fraud, full of inactive and fake profiles.
Social Dating  is a complete waste of time because "social networks" are for meeting the people you know in advance, not for meeting new people for dating or make new friends. There are 2 papers "The Anatomy of the Facebook Social Graph" and "Four Degrees of Separation" cited in the article "Facebook users average 4.74 degrees of separation"


I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

The only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry is using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5 and expressing compatibility with eight decimals (needs a quantized pattern comparison method, part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation, to calculate similarity between prospective mates.)

The summer will begin soon here in South America, with January the hottest month. The wind blowing from the North is very, very hot. If you live in the Northern Hemisphere, see why your brain distorts.

Badoo 2011 revenue revealed

An article at TechCrunch says Badoo 2011 revenue is USD 100 million

Badoo has 5 main revenue streams:
1) Ads: as I use Firefox with AdBlock Plus addon, I do not see those ads.
2) Selling data from its database to third parties.
3) By subscriptions but it is not mandatory/necessary to pay in order to communicate with other members.
I estimate 300,000 persons paying USD 25 per 3 months (on average)
In South America conversion rate less than 1% (revealed in a previous interview)
4) Virtual gifts: LatinAmericans, persons from "Hispanic origin" are not fond of paying to send virtual gifts as the Asiatics do.
I estimate worldwide 2 million persons sending 3 annually virtual gifts on average. Each virtual gift costs USD 2.00 On a 50% revenue share basis for Badoo and 50% for the carrier.
5) Paying to increase visibility.
my bet is 5 million persons paying USD 2.00, twice a year (on average) to increase their visibility (and popularity - they are mostly men) on a 50% revenue share basis for Badoo and 50% for the carrier.

I had estimated Badoo's 2011 worldwide annual revenue: in the range of USD 46 million from streams 3), 4) and 5).

Badoo is a social dating for fun and I had tested using some dummy f/m profiles and I guess 95% of Badoo's active database are men and only 5% women. It is severely unbalanced.

Sunday, December 4, 2011

Online Dating Industry 2012 State of the Art

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites but no one is using the 16PF5 to assess personality of its members!

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites but no one calculates similarity with a quantized pattern comparison method!

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites but no one can show Compatibility Distribution Curves to each and every of its members!

WorldWide, there are over 5,000 -five thousand- online dating sites but no one is scientifically proven!

Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods are only fueled by big marketing budgets and not by serious scientific evidence. No one ( eHarmony, Chemistry, PerfectMatch, PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, MeeticAffinity, Be2, RewardingLove, Parship, True, etc) can prove its matching algorithm can match prospective partners who will have more stable and satisfying relationships than couples matched by chance, astrological destiny, personal preferences, searching on one's own, or other technique as the control group in a peer_reviewed Scientific Paper. They are all like placebo, because
* Actual online dating sites offering compatibility matching methods, when calculating compatibility between prospective mates, have less or at least the same precision as searching on one's own. [in the range of 3 or 4 persons compatible per 1,000 persons screened]
* That is because they use:
a) simplified versions of personality traits, instead of the 16PF5 or similar with the complete inventory (16 variables)
b) inadequate quantitative methods to calculate compatibility between prospective mates, like eHarmony which uses Dyadic Adjustment Scale or other sites which use multivariate linear / logistic regression equations o other equations.

Although Mr. Verba, the new eHarmony's CEO had ordered eHarmony's Team (Carter, Gonzaga, Lee) to stop playing the guitar at eHarmony's Labs and began working in a completely new matching algorithm using a copycat of the 16PF5 to assess personality, instead of the Big5. They plan to launch in few weeks because eHarmony had stayed 11 years in the Online Dating Industry without innovating, saying "scientifically proven" and eHarmony does not have any proof; with a low success rate and high level of false positives, scamming members with automatic rebilling and other credit cards trickery.
Moreover I had sent several emails to alert them (since May 2011) Match's Team is secretely testing a new compatibility matching algorithm using the 16PF5 test, to replace Chemistry, a 6+ years old and obsolete site.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon, comparing both proposals.
I had also challenged both eHarmony and Match to offer Compatibility Distribution Curves for each and every dater, i.e. how compatible you are with the rest of the daters.
Both eHarmony and Match will need to acquire a Cray, Fujitsu or Hitachi supercomputer OR over a 1,000 high speed servers arrangement due to the high volume of floating point operations you need to calculate similarity between quantized patterns using the 16PF5 test. (In this case compatibility is equal to similarity)

In the "first run" you not only need to calculate similarity between each and every women compared to men, but also men to men similarity to avoid women seeing men as all the same, and women to women similarity to avoid men seeing women as all the same.

I had reviewed over 55 compatibility matching engines intended for serious dating since 2003, when I had discovered "the online dating sound barrier" problem.

Breaking “the online dating sound barrier” is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!

The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 6.7 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 6.7.6.8.9.6.7.7.8.7.2.5.8.7.3.4 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 7.7.6.8.8.7.6.5.8.7.4.5.7.7.3.4
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.

That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.

All other proposals are .............. NOISE

Saturday, December 3, 2011

Stupid Investors Series, Today: eCift

eCift is Parship simplified and rebranded for the Turkish market.

Parship is a 10+ years old obsolete site and a HOAX. Nobody knows its brain, Dr. Hugo Schmale (79 years old?).
I am really astonished to see how Parship can promote its "Personality Test based on scientific principles." (Machen Sie unseren wissenschaftlichen Persönlichkeitstest) in some countries without any Scientific Proof.

Nor eCift nor Parship are going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry, they BOTH are OBSOLETE and a HOAX.

I hope those stupid investors will lose 3 Million Euro invested in eCift.

Friday, December 2, 2011

POF Argentina paid site with Automatic Rebilling clause

PlentyOfFish, the wolf in sheep's clothing. It has paid features inside its "free" proposal.
UltraPareja is the UltraMatch feature, a Behavioural Recommendation Engine. (little birdie told me it does not perform as expected, and nearly nobody pays for that feature)






As predicted at PlentyOfFish International Plans, the owner plans to launch local sites in Latin American Countries.

The entire site design is terrible, looks like an old quilt all patched.
The owner should hire his own wife's services to redesign entirely PlentyOfFish (rebranded as POF in some countries)


"carro" means car in Mexico, but Argentina uses "auto" instead.

birth order item is useless at all, a complete waste of time, it adds more "noise than signal" to the predictor they are tuning.





PlentyOfFish, Plenty of Rubbish Tests, all home grown! No one was peer reviewed or published in any Scientific Paper. Please remember normative tests can not be simply translated, because you need the norm for those tests, and that norm is actualized each and every time Census Figures are released.


The main test, the PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, is a HOAX.
PlentyOfFish tried to be the next  "free eHarmony" but made 3 mistakes.



 














Sexy Girls at POF? What does it mean? You need to upgrade to paid member to use that feature.

When you click to upgrade, this warning message appears from Firefox. (The majority of South Americans use Firefox 8.0 with Adblock Plus Add-on, Windows XP service pack 2 operating system with 512M of RAM, AVG antivirus free edition 2011 and 1Mbps Internet Broadband. If you want to test how something performs you should use than combo for South American countries).


The IM (chat feature)