Internet Dating Industry Super Conference 2012
PRE-EVENT: January 23, 2012
9:00 AM Introduction to the Online Dating Business
Speaker: Mark Brooks
He is going to regurgitate the same stats since 2004.
C-Level executives are more worried about their golf scores than their company's long term strategy and innovations. The biggest scammers are not from Ghana or Nigeria. They are precisely marketing executives from big sites. They use credit card billing trickery. Lack Of Innovation & Decadence can summarize the Online Dating Industry since years. The Online Dating Industry is performing like the Pharmaceutical and Cosmetic Industry before the USA Food and Drug Administration was created. There is no/weak Legislation, no ID verification, low reliable background checks, no Quality Norms. No one compatibility matching method is Scientifically Proven.
The entire Online Dating Industry for serious daters in 1st World Countries is a HOAX, performing as a Big Online Casino, with a low effectiveness/efficiency level of their matching algorithms (less than 10%).
The Online Dating Industry needs a major cataclysm to extinguish the big, old and obsolete dinosaurs (eHarmony, Match/Chemistry, PerfectMatch, Meetic, Parship, etc)
9:00 AM Business Models for Matchmaking
The Online Dating Industry needs to kill the Matchmaking Industry, like computers killed typewriters.
DAY ONE: January 24, 2012
Keynote Address: Then and Now: The Online Dating Industry & How it All Began
Speaker: Gary Kremen (the founder of Match) will discuss how the company was started in 1994, how it developed over the years and where the industry is now???
Kremen sold Match in early stage. What does he really know about the Online Dating Industry and the Innovations it needs? Nothing.
2011 Year in Review: The Online Personals Industry
Speaker: Mark Brooks
Jazzed failed / eHarmony Japan called iHamoni never launched / eHarmony USA, CA, UK, AU losing traffic , and Match failed with Chemistry, a 6+ years old and obsolete site, a complete fiasco and MeeticAffinity in Europe, another HOAX.
PlentyOfFish, the wolf in sheep's clothing, had been only making noise in the Online Dating Industry, but it can not revolutionize nothing. It failed to be the next free eHarmony with its PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then renamed to the PlentyOfFish Marriage Predictor, then renamed again PlentyOfFish Chemistry Predictor, then failed with eVow, its entirely paid proposal, then will fail with its new paid UltraMatch feature, a Behavioural Recommendation Engine. (little birdie told me it does not perform as expected, and nearly nobody pays for that feature)
Expect a NEW major Lawsuit in USA against paid dating sites for fraud (fake profiles, inactive profiles and automatic rebilling trickery), like the one about Power Balance Bracelets lawsuit.
DAY TWO: January 25, 2012
DATING BUSINESS: EQUITY AND VALUE
9:00 AM Equity: How A Dating Business is sold for USD50 Million
Speaker: Sam Yagan from OKCupid
That sold was only a lucky strike, nothing more.
THE ERIC HOLZLE MEMORIAL SESSION: DATING ALGORITHM TRACK
10:30 AM [PANEL] Dating Algorithms
Speaker: Dr. Pepper Schwartz, the brain behind PerfectMatch, based on an ipsative test, the MBTI, obsolete site, in decadence.
Speaker: Gavin Potter, Intro Analytics, an stupidity behavioural recommender system, useless at all for serious dating
Speaker: Sam Yagan OKCupid, Yagan is working for Match at OkCupidLabs trying to copy LIFEPROJECT method, I suspect.
Speaker: Dr. Eli Finkel, science of attraction, but what is important in attracting people to one another IS NOT important in making couples happy!
Speaker: Larry Michael Match Matrix, an stupidity based on modified biorhythms.
11:00 AM Trends in High-end Online Dating
Speaker: Philipp Triebel (CEO) ExistVenture (IvyDate)
Ha, ha, ha, I know him and he is not an expert in the High-end Online Dating.
WORLDWIDE DATING MARKETS
1:30 PM The European Dating Market
Speaker: Peter Schmid (CEO) Parship
Parship is a HOAX and a 10+ years old obsolete site with any scientific support!
2:00 PM South American Dating Market
Speaker: Sebastian Hofman Laursen (Gerente General) Net Innovation Group
Ha, ha, ha, he had failed in South America with DatingChile and DatingArgentina.
Remember, the FREE model is dead!
Free Online Dating Sites, ads supported only like OasisActive, AmorenLinea, DatingChile or DatingArgentina, had failed even in the South American Market, where nobody has credits cards or nobody wants to pay for a membership.
Only ads supported sites failed because operating costs are bigger than revenue; and other previously free sites had morphed to freemium ones like OkCupid and PlentyOfFish; they both had paid options with their free proposals.
2:00 PM Science & Technology Trends in Online Dating
Speaker: Linda van Liempt (CEO) Soul2Match
Although Soul2Match's and FindYourFaceMate's personality similarity approach are correct, how they assess personality (indirect method to measure the Big5 traits, ADDS DISTORTION to the measurement) and how Soul2Match and Find Your FaceMate calculate similarity (low precision method, I guess similarity is calculated using Pearson's product moment coefficient) is incorrect.
Compatibility is expressed only as a percentage, from 0% to 100%.
Soul2Match and Find Your FaceMate suffer from the range convergence phenomenon I had discovered during 2003. That range convergence phenomenon is what I had called "the online dating sound barrier"
Who independently validated and independently certified how that profiling technology correlates with the Big5 traits?
I will want to see a paper showing Soul2Match/Find Your FaceMate correlates with the Big5 traits (like the one for the Dewey Color System showing its correlation with the 16PF and the distortion it adds.)
"FaceReader from Profiler1: Personality Traits analysis based on facial features." a complete waste of time for serious daters because it uses an ipsative model, not a normative one.
DAY THREE: January 26, 2012
10:40 AM iDate Startup: Startup Company
Speaker: Brian Bowman (CEO) theCompleteme
Thecompleteme is an online social dating company founded by a former VP Match who is not an entrepreneur; he is only a "marketinero", a smoke seller, but he can not innovate in nothing. It is not going to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
11:20 AM iDate Startup: Startup Company
Speaker: Lorenz Bogaert (CEO) TWOO
TWOO? The same as theCompleteme, a copycat of Badoo, Yangutu, Mamboo, etc
ONLY ONE ROAD TO ACHIEVE INNOVATIONS The Online Dating Industry needs Innovations, but the innovations the Online Dating Industry needs will come from only one source: the latest discoveries in theories of romantic relationships development with commitment. Only 3 major discoveries can help to revolutionize the online dating industry.
I) Several studies showing contraceptive pills users make different mate choices, on average, compared to non-users. "Only short-term but not long-term partner preferences tend to vary with the menstrual cycle"
II) People often report partner preferences that are not compatible with their choices in real life. (FORGET Behavioural recommender systems or other system that learns your preferences)
III) What is important in attracting people to one another may not be important in making couples happy. Compatibility is all about a high level on personality similarity between prospective mates for long term mating with commitment.
WorldWide, there are over 5,000 online dating sites but no one is using the 16PF5 (or similar test) to assess personality of its members.
Without offering the NORMATIVE16PF5 (or similar test measuring exactly the 16 personality factors) for serious dating, it will be impossible to innovate and revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
All the new & fresh research shows STRICT personality similarity as the right road to go.
Even in Personality Based Recommender Systems, which are the next generation of recommender systems because they perform FAR better than Behavioural ones (past actions and pattern of personal preferences)
That is the only way to improve recommender systems, to include the personality traits of their users.
eHarmony and IAC's Personals will launch new compatibility (personality profiling) sites, both using copycats of the 16PF5 test. I had put them under high pressure revealing in advance their plans to each other. I had challenged them to offer Compatibility Distribution Curves for each and every dater, i.e. how compatible you are with the rest of the daters.
I will be posting screenshots and insightful comments soon, comparing both proposals in my blog. My bet is both Match and eHarmony are going to fail with those new sites. They need the knowledge I have about how to compare quantized patterns with high precision.
Remember: eHarmony had stayed 11 years in the Online Dating Industry without innovating, saying "scientifically proven" and eHarmony does not have any proof; with a low success rate and high level of false positives, scamming members with automatic rebilling and other credit cards trickery.
Breaking “the online dating sound barrier” is to achieve at least:
3 most compatible persons in a 100,000 persons database.
12 most compatible persons in a 1,000,000 persons database.
48 most compatible persons in a 10,000,000 persons database.
100 times better than Compatibility Matching Algorithms used by actual online dating sites!
The only way to achieve that is:
- using the 16PF5 normative personality test, available in different languages to assess personality of members, or a proprietary test with exactly the same traits of the 16PF5.
The ensemble of the 16PF5 is: 10E16, big number as All World Population is nearly 6.7 * 10E9
- expressing compatibility with eight decimals, like The pattern 220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168.22.214.171.124.126.96.36.199 is 92.55033557% +/- 0.00000001% similar to the pattern 188.8.131.52.184.108.40.206.220.127.116.11.18.104.22.168
Using a quantized pattern comparison method (part of pattern recognition by cross-correlation) to calculate similarity between prospective mates.
That is the only way to revolutionize the Online Dating Industry.
All other proposals are .............. NOISE